European Gas & LNG Markets, Energy Policy, and Geopolitics

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Reports and presentations on the European Gas Market
European Gas Hub Analysis
Published 10/11/2016 by Leslie Palti Guzman

•European import dependency rising due to declining indigenous supplies (UK and Netherlands) causing upward trend in imports, both LNG and pipeline
•Consensus view: European LNG imports set to rise in 2016-2020 because Europe is the market of last resort in a glutted global LNG market ; this view is not based on increase in European gas demand, but rather on: 1) Europe being the default market for homeless LNG cargoes; 2) Available infrastructure; 3) Political will to use LNG as a tool to diversify gas mix
•What can go wrong with the consensus view: 1) Gas-on-gas and inter-fuel competition crowd out LNG ; 2) Higher demand than anticipated in other markets making Europe less attractive for LNG cargoes ; 3) The market rebalances faster than anticipated

 

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